Election Process Changing

When comparing elections from now to say 2000 and prior, you will notice quite a difference when it comes to the primary calendar. More and more primaries and caucuses are being held earlier, this has become known as frontloading. In 2008, Super Tuesday was held on February 5 which was about a month earlier then it was in 2000 (March 7) and 2004 (March 2).


This often gives candidates the psychological thought that the election is over after the Iowa and New Hampshire. They believe that early primaries matter more then late ones regardless of the math. It is clear that rank-and-file Democrats and Republicans nationwide pay attention to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary results, and therefore, national preferences have often changed in response to the outcomes of these two contests. That has especially been the case when the Iowa or New Hampshire results deviated from expectations, with the winning candidate often surging in the national polls. Those surges have likely been fueled by the positive media attention that is showered on the winners, and may have been aided further by more critical coverage of the candidates who failed to meet expectations.

As you can see below, prior to the Jan. 19, 2004, Iowa caucuses, former Gov. Howard Dean had emerged as the Democratic front-runner, with 25% national support, and Gen. Wesley Clark appeared to be his strongest challenger at 19%. Sen. John Kerry was supported by just 9% of national Democrats, about the same level of support as Rep. Dick Gephardt (8%), Sen. Joe Lieberman (7%), and Sen. John Edwards (6%) received. Kerry won an upset victory in Iowa, and followed that up with a solid victory in New Hampshire on Jan. 27. After his win in those two contests, Kerry became the overwhelming choice of national Democrats, with 47% supporting him. Edwards and Dean tied for second at 13% in the first post-Iowa/post-New Hampshire national poll.




Many have proposed a primary reform to try and avoid the issue of frontloading. Some suggestions include: regional primary, national primary or small-to-large primary. Any thoughts?


For more information please refer to the following sites:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/103537/iowa-new-hampshire-results-often-shift-national-preferences.aspx#2


http://frontloading.blogspot.com/


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/calendars/democraticprimaries/index.html